WELCOME

Welcome to US Market Research, where data-driven insights meet investment opportunity. I’m Carlos Jimenez, and I’ve created this platform with a clear mission: to transform complex market data into clear, actionable intelligence that empowers your investment decisions.

US Market Research website delivers a comprehensive daily analysis of financial market conditions, with a primary focus on the S&P 500. Through rigorously tested models and in-depth analysis, the goal is to help you understand market trends and identify potential opportunities. While the core focus is the S&P 500, here I also want to provide valuable insights on other indices, sectors, and individual stocks when our models indicate significant developments worth your attention.

To ensure you stay ahead of market movements, this dashboard updates daily before the New York market opens, providing you with timely insights drawn from trusted sources including FRED, the US Treasury Website, CBOE website, and Yahoo Finance. This carefully curated data powers all the analysis you will see in this website, helping you make more informed investment choices in an ever-changing market landscape.

BRIEF DESCRIPTION

• Carlos Jimenez: Welcome to my website, your free resource for financial market data, analysis, and insights. Currently, I work as a Senior Manager in AI & Data at Ernst & Young LLP, helping banks and insurance companies implement GenAI and traditional machine learning algorithms to optimize Risk and Wealth & Asset Management (WAM) processes. Here, I combine that expertise with my passion for making financial knowledge accessible and actionable for everyone. This is completely free!

• Anne Pro: is the advanced AI financial analyst I developed and the creative force behind this site. Anne Pro transforms complex market data into clear, actionable insights, empowering investors at all levels to make smarter, faster decisions. From trends to technical analysis, Anne Pro ensures every piece of content is accurate, insightful, and easy to understand.

Explore the following Key Sections:

• Global Overview: Gain actionable insights into market trends and opportunities across asset classes, powered by real-time data and advanced financial market analysis from our Large Language Model (LLM).

• Volatility Lab: Explore unique Implied Volatility (IV) analytics based on PUT options data, offering innovative perspectives on market sentiment and risk assessment.

• Technical Analysis: Uncover trends and momentum insights for major indices and sectors to anticipate market movements effectively.

• drawdowns Analysis: Statistical analysis of the Drawdowns in mayor indices.

• Macroeconomics: Access critical US economic indicators and government bond data for a comprehensive macroeconomic perspective.

• Option Lab: Analyze Gamma Exposure (GEX) to understand the impact of options positioning on asset prices across indices and single names.

• Machine Learning: Utilize cutting-edge ML models for forecasting and advanced analytics to enhance market strategy precision.

OUR FREE SERVICES

After creating this website, on a daily basis, Anne Pro also works on the following areas:

• Value Investing Ideas: Explore carefully selected investment opportunities rooted in the principles of value investing. Anne Pro identifies undervalued stocks with strong fundamentals, empowering you to make confident, long-term investment decisions. Our goal is simple: hold positions for the long term and watch your wealth grow steadily.

• Daily Option Trading Ideas: Stay ahead of the curve with daily, actionable trading ideas designed for options traders. Leverage data-driven insights and expert strategies to capitalize on market volatility, hedge risks, and generate income. Currently, we focus on 0DTE (zero days to expiration) strategies and income generation ideas to maximize your short-term trading potential.

• News Letter: Start your day with our daily newsletter, delivered before the market opens. Packed with exclusive market updates, AI-driven analysis, and expert financial insights, it keeps you informed on the latest trends, investment opportunities, and strategic perspectives—all in one convenient email.

Thank you for visiting US Market Research, my personal free project, and being part of this journey. This project is my passion, my commitment, and my way of giving back by making quality financial analysis accessible to everyone. I’m confident these resources will help guide your investing decisions and elevate your financial strategies.

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Happy Investing
Carlos Jimenez, FRM – CFA Level III Candidate

DISCLAIMER

The information on this website is updated once daily (around 6:00 am New York Time) and is provided solely for informational purposes.

The content on this website is not intended for any person in any jurisdiction where, due to nationality, residency, or other reasons, the publication or availability of this information is prohibited. It is the sole responsibility of individuals accessing this site to ensure compliance with all local laws and regulations regarding the use of this information. All content provided here is strictly intended for professional investors and should not be interpreted as advice or endorsement suitable for non-professional or retail investors.

No information or opinion expressed on this website constitutes an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy, sell, or dispose of any financial instrument or asset, nor to engage in any other financial transaction. The content here should not be considered as financial advice, investment recommendation, or a substitute for personalized advice from a licensed financial professional. I AM NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISOR.

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OUR OPINION

As for the previous trading day, the analysis of SP500 volatility reveals several key insights into the current market dynamics, focusing on implied volatility from the option chain, volatility clustering patterns, and the behavior of the volatility spread.

Examining the implied volatility (IV) from the option chain, we observe that the At-The-Money (ATM) IV has shown a consistent downward trend from March 31, 2025, to April 17, 2026. Starting at 21.55% on March 31, 2025, it gradually decreased to 18.25% by April 17, 2026. This trend suggests a contango structure, where long-term IV is slightly higher than short-term IV, indicating a market expectation of decreasing volatility over time. Such a structure typically favors short-term volatility positions, as the market anticipates lower volatility in the future.

For Moneyness 105% IV, the data reflects a similar downward trend, albeit at a slightly lower rate than ATM IV. This indicates that while there is an expectation of decreased volatility, the market is not as aggressively pricing in lower volatility for out-of-the-money calls. This could imply a more cautious approach to speculative strategies, as the market may not fully expect significant upward movements in the underlying asset.

Conversely, Moneyness 95% IV, representing out-of-the-money puts, has also decreased but remains higher than both ATM and Moneyness 105% IV. This suggests a heightened demand for downside protection, possibly due to market participants hedging against potential declines. The higher IV for these options indicates a preference for hedging strategies, as investors seek to protect against downside risk.

The cumulative analysis of days where IV has remained below 20 reveals a pattern of volatility clustering. The data shows that the IV has been below this threshold for extended periods, with occasional spikes above 20. This low-volatility environment can be beneficial for certain trading strategies, such as selling options to capture premium, given the reduced risk of large price swings. However, when the count of days below 20 resets to zero, indicating a rise in IV, it presents both risks and opportunities. A high IV environment increases the potential for selling opportunities, as options premiums are elevated, but also necessitates caution due to increased market uncertainty.

Analyzing the volatility spread, which is the difference between realized volatility (RV) and implied volatility (IV), provides further insights. The data indicates that the spread has been predominantly positive, with IV consistently exceeding RV. This scenario is conducive to selling volatility or implementing hedging strategies, as the market is pricing in more risk than is currently being realized. A positive spread suggests that investors can potentially earn a volatility risk premium by selling options, as the implied risk is not being matched by actual market movements.

In conclusion, the SP500’s implied volatility structure suggests a contango market, favoring short-term volatility positions. The higher IV for Moneyness 95% options indicates a preference for hedging strategies, while the positive volatility spread supports selling volatility to capture premiums. Investors should remain vigilant for shifts in volatility patterns and consider additional resources, such as historical data and charts, to enhance their understanding of these trends. Visual aids accompanying this analysis can provide further clarity on the evolving volatility landscape.

by: Anne Pro
AI Research Division

OUR OPINION

As for the previous trading day, global stock markets exhibited varied performance across different continents, reflecting a mix of economic conditions and investor sentiment.

YTD Performance Analysis

Oceania: - New Zealand and Australia have faced challenges, with YTD returns of -7.31% and -1.97%, respectively. This underperformance may be attributed to economic uncertainties and external trade pressures impacting these markets.

Asia: - The region shows a mixed picture. China leads with a robust YTD gain of 18.21%, likely driven by economic recovery and policy support. Conversely, Taiwan and India have seen declines of -7.52% and -3.60%, respectively, possibly due to geopolitical tensions and inflationary pressures. South Korea, however, shows a positive YTD return of 5.71%, indicating resilience in its tech sector.

Middle East: - Saudi Arabia and Qatar have modest YTD performances of 1.00% and -0.28%, respectively. The stability in Saudi Arabia might be supported by strong oil prices, while Qatar’s slight decline could reflect regional economic adjustments.

Europe: - European markets are generally strong, with Spain (22.93%), Italy (19.04%), and Germany (17.42%) leading the way. These gains may be linked to economic recovery and fiscal stimulus measures. France and the UK also show solid growth at 11.99% and 10.79%, respectively.

Africa: - South Africa stands out with a significant YTD increase of 13.70%, possibly benefiting from commodity exports and favorable economic policies.

North America: - The United States has a YTD decline of -4.03%, potentially due to interest rate hikes and inflation concerns. Canada shows a slight positive return of 0.99%, indicating relative stability.

South America: - Chile and Brazil are notable performers with YTD gains of 20.39% and 13.83%, respectively, likely driven by strong commodity markets. Peru and Mexico also show positive returns of 9.83% and 6.79%.

Daily Performance Analysis

Oceania: - New Zealand experienced a slight daily gain of 0.07%, while Australia saw a decline of -0.13%, reflecting short-term market fluctuations.

Asia: - Daily movements were mixed, with India gaining 0.39% and China declining by -0.31%. South Korea faced a notable drop of -1.37%, indicating short-term volatility.

Middle East: - Saudi Arabia and Qatar showed positive daily movements of 0.73% and 0.51%, respectively, suggesting short-term investor confidence.

Europe: - European markets faced daily declines, with France (-1.36%) and Italy (-1.12%) experiencing notable drops, possibly due to profit-taking or external economic concerns.

Africa: - South Africa saw a strong daily gain of 1.11%, reflecting positive investor sentiment.

North America: - The United States had a daily increase of 0.67%, indicating a rebound in market confidence. Canada also saw a positive movement of 0.44%.

South America: - Chile had a slight daily gain of 0.20%, while Brazil experienced a decline of -0.42%, reflecting mixed short-term market dynamics.

Regional Insights and Strategic Recommendations

• Opportunities: Europe and South America present strong YTD growth, suggesting potential for growth-focused strategies. China’s robust performance also indicates opportunities in Asia.
• Risks: The United States and Oceania face challenges, where defensive strategies may be prudent due to economic uncertainties and inflation concerns.
• Macroeconomic Factors: Inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical tensions remain key factors influencing market performance. Investors should monitor these developments closely.

For further insights, additional reference data, including charts and historical data, are available to support the analysis presented here. Through this analysis, we aim to enhance our understanding of market dynamics and improve our strategic planning, ultimately leading to more informed and effective decision-making.

by: Anne Pro
AI Research Division

OUR OPINION

As for the previous trading day, the financial markets presented a varied landscape, with distinct performance metrics across key sectors. In the Equities sector, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) showed a modest daily return of 0.67%, though it has faced challenges over the week and month with declines of 2.79% and 5.57%, respectively. The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), representing the technology-heavy Nasdaq, experienced a slight daily decrease of 0.004%, with more significant declines over the week and month at 4.97% and 7.59%. The SPDR Dow Jones ETF Trust (DIA) outperformed its peers with a daily return of 1.02%, despite a weekly decline of 1.39%. The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) faced a daily decline of 0.48% and has struggled with a monthly drop of 6.85%.

In the Fixed Income sector, the SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF (BIL) remained stable with no daily change, reflecting its role as a safe haven. The iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY) and iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) showed modest daily gains of 0.07% and 0.29%, respectively. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) demonstrated a daily return of 0.99%, indicating some resilience in longer-duration bonds despite broader market volatility.

Commodities presented a mixed picture. The United States Oil Fund LP (USO) saw a daily increase of 3.42%, reflecting recent volatility in energy markets. SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) and iShares Silver Trust (SLV) showed positive daily returns of 1.44% and a slight decline of 0.03%, respectively, with GLD maintaining a strong year-to-date return of 17.41%. The United States Natural Gas Fund LP (UNG) experienced a daily gain of 1.31%, continuing its upward trend with a significant year-to-date increase of 27.04%.

In Real Estate, the Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ) showed a daily return of 0.93%, indicating investor confidence in the sector’s recovery. The Vanguard Global ex-U.S. Real Estate ETF (VNQI) faced a daily decline of 0.47%, while the iShares Residential and Multisector Real Estate ETF (REZ) posted a daily gain of 0.68%.

Macroeconomic factors continue to shape market dynamics, with inflationary pressures and central bank policy adjustments influencing investor sentiment. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes aim to curb inflation, impacting fixed-income returns and increasing volatility in equity markets. Geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions further contribute to commodity price fluctuations, affecting investor risk appetite.

Looking ahead, the market outlook remains cautiously optimistic, with potential opportunities in sectors poised for growth. In Equities, a balanced approach focusing on diversified ETFs like SPY and DIA is recommended, capitalizing on broad market exposure. In Fixed Income, short-duration bonds such as SHY offer stability amid rising rates, while caution is advised for long-duration assets like TLT. Commodities present selective opportunities, with GLD offering a hedge against inflation, while energy investments require careful consideration due to volatility. In Real Estate, VNQ offers potential upside as the sector recovers, supported by favorable macroeconomic conditions. Investors are advised to maintain a diversified portfolio, balancing sector strengths and weaknesses, and to remain vigilant of macroeconomic developments that may influence market trends.

Additional reference data can be found in the table accompanying the LLM-generated analysis.

by: Anne Pro
AI Research Division

SPX Realized Daily Vol

SPX Realized Weekly Vol

SPX Realized Monthly Vol

SPX Realized Annual Vol

SPX Implied Daily Vol

SPX Implied Weekly Vol

SPX Implied Monthly Vol

SPX Implied Annual Vol

OUR OPINION

As for the previous trading day, the analysis of DowJones volatility reveals several key insights into the current market dynamics, focusing on implied volatility from the option chain, volatility clustering patterns, and the behavior of the volatility spread.

Examining the implied volatility (IV) from the option chain, we observe that the At-The-Money (ATM) IV has shown a relatively stable trend over the past year. For instance, on April 4, 2025, the ATM IV was 15.82%, and by December 18, 2026, it had slightly increased to 16.55%. This suggests a contango structure, where long-term IV is marginally higher than short-term IV, indicating a market expectation of increasing volatility over time. Such a structure typically favors short-term volatility positions, as the market anticipates higher volatility in the future.

For Moneyness 105% IV, the data reflects a similar pattern, with IV starting at 12.81% on April 4, 2025, and rising to 15.65% by December 17, 2027. This indicates that while there is an expectation of increased volatility, the market is not as aggressively pricing in higher volatility for out-of-the-money calls. This could imply a more cautious approach to speculative strategies, as the market may not fully expect significant upward movements in the underlying asset.

Conversely, Moneyness 95% IV, representing out-of-the-money puts, has also decreased but remains higher than both ATM and Moneyness 105% IV. For example, it was 22.59% on April 4, 2025, and decreased to 17.32% by December 17, 2027. This suggests a heightened demand for downside protection, possibly due to market participants hedging against potential declines. The higher IV for these options indicates a preference for hedging strategies, as investors seek to protect against downside risk.

The cumulative analysis of days where IV has remained below 20 reveals a pattern of volatility clustering. The data shows that the IV has been below this threshold for extended periods, with occasional spikes above 20. This low-volatility environment can be beneficial for certain trading strategies, such as selling options to capture premium, given the reduced risk of large price swings. However, when the count of days below 20 resets to zero, indicating a rise in IV, it presents both risks and opportunities. A high IV environment increases the potential for selling opportunities, as options premiums are elevated, but also necessitates caution due to increased market uncertainty.

Analyzing the volatility spread, which is the difference between realized volatility (RV) and implied volatility (IV), provides further insights. The data indicates that the spread has been predominantly positive, with IV consistently exceeding RV. For example, on March 31, 2025, the IV was 19.11%, while the RV was 17.98%. This scenario is conducive to selling volatility or implementing hedging strategies, as the market is pricing in more risk than is currently being realized. A positive spread suggests that investors can potentially earn a volatility risk premium by selling options, as the implied risk is not being matched by actual market movements.

In conclusion, the DowJones’s implied volatility structure suggests a contango market, favoring short-term volatility positions. The higher IV for Moneyness 95% options indicates a preference for hedging strategies, while the positive volatility spread supports selling volatility to capture premiums. Investors should remain vigilant for shifts in volatility patterns and consider additional resources, such as historical data and charts, to enhance their understanding of these trends. Visual aids accompanying this analysis can provide further clarity on the evolving volatility landscape. Through this analysis, we aim to enhance our understanding of market dynamics and improve our strategic planning, ultimately leading to more informed and effective decision-making.

by: Anne Pro
AI Research Division

DJI Realized Daily Vol

DJI Realized Weekly Vol

DJI Realized Monthly Vol

DJI Realized Annual Vol

DJI Implied Daily Vol

DJI Implied Weekly Vol

DJI Implied Monthly Vol

DJI Implied Annual Vol

OUR OPINION

As for the previous trading day, the analysis of Nasdaq volatility reveals several key insights into the current market dynamics, focusing on implied volatility from the option chain, volatility clustering patterns, and the behavior of the volatility spread.

Examining the implied volatility (IV) from the option chain, we observe that the At-The-Money (ATM) IV has shown a consistent downward trend from March 31, 2025, to January 16, 2026. Starting at 26.75% on March 31, 2025, it has decreased to 22.96% by January 16, 2026. This trend suggests a backwardation structure, where short-term IV is higher than long-term IV, indicating a market expectation of decreasing volatility over time. Such a structure typically favors long-term volatility positions, as the market anticipates lower volatility in the future. For Moneyness 105% IV, the data reflects a similar downward trend, albeit at a slightly lower rate than ATM IV. This indicates that while there is an expectation of decreased volatility, the market is not as aggressively pricing in lower volatility for out-of-the-money calls. This could imply a more cautious approach to speculative strategies, as the market may not fully expect significant upward movements in the underlying asset. Conversely, Moneyness 95% IV, representing out-of-the-money puts, has also decreased but remains higher than both ATM and Moneyness 105% IV. This suggests a heightened demand for downside protection, possibly due to market participants hedging against potential declines. The higher IV for these options indicates a preference for hedging strategies, as investors seek to protect against downside risk.

The cumulative analysis of days where IV has remained below 20 reveals a pattern of volatility clustering. The data shows that the IV has been below this threshold for extended periods, with occasional spikes above 20. This low-volatility environment can be beneficial for certain trading strategies, such as selling options to capture premium, given the reduced risk of large price swings. However, when the count of days below 20 resets to zero, indicating a rise in IV, it presents both risks and opportunities. A high IV environment increases the potential for selling opportunities, as options premiums are elevated, but also necessitates caution due to increased market uncertainty. As of the latest data, the IV has not been below 20 for a significant period, suggesting that the market is currently experiencing higher volatility levels.

Analyzing the volatility spread, which is the difference between realized volatility (RV) and implied volatility (IV), provides further insights. The data indicates that the spread has been predominantly positive, with IV consistently exceeding RV. This scenario is conducive to selling volatility or implementing hedging strategies, as the market is pricing in more risk than is currently being realized. A positive spread suggests that investors can potentially earn a volatility risk premium by selling options, as the implied risk is not being matched by actual market movements.

In conclusion, the Nasdaq’s implied volatility structure suggests a backwardation market, favoring long-term volatility positions. The higher IV for Moneyness 95% options indicates a preference for hedging strategies, while the positive volatility spread supports selling volatility to capture premiums. Investors should remain vigilant for shifts in volatility patterns and consider additional resources, such as historical data and charts, to enhance their understanding of these trends. Visual aids accompanying this analysis can provide further clarity on the evolving volatility landscape. Through this analysis, we aim to enhance our understanding of market dynamics and improve our strategic planning, ultimately leading to more informed and effective decision-making.

by: Anne Pro
AI Research Division

NDX Realized Daily Vol

NDX Realized Weekly Vol

NDX Realized Monthly Vol

NDX Realized Annual Vol

NDX Implied Daily Vol

NDX Implied Weekly Vol

NDX Implied Monthly Vol

NDX Implied Annual Vol

OUR OPINION

As for the previous trading day, the performance of the major US indices has shown varied trends, reflecting the broader market dynamics. The SP500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones have all experienced fluctuations, with the Nasdaq showing the most significant volatility. Over recent weeks, the Nasdaq has faced substantial declines, particularly noticeable in early March, where it saw a sharp drop of over 10% by mid-month. This indicates a challenging environment for technology-heavy indices, likely driven by sector-specific pressures and broader economic factors.

In contrast, the Dow Jones has demonstrated relative resilience, maintaining positive returns even as the Nasdaq and SP500 faced downturns. This suggests a potential shift towards more stable, blue-chip stocks that typically comprise the Dow Jones, reflecting investor preference for stability amid uncertainty.

Focusing on the SP500, sector performance analysis reveals distinct trends. The Information Technology sector, despite being a significant component of the index, has seen notable underperformance. Companies like Teradyne, ON Semiconductor, and First Solar have experienced substantial declines, with year-to-date returns falling over 30%. This underperformance can be attributed to several factors, including supply chain disruptions, regulatory challenges, and shifts in consumer demand impacting tech stocks.

Conversely, the Consumer Discretionary sector also faces challenges, with companies like Deckers Brands and Tesla, Inc. experiencing significant declines. This sector’s struggles may be linked to changing consumer behaviors and economic pressures affecting discretionary spending.

On the other hand, sectors such as Industrials and Utilities have shown more stability. While not leading in performance, they have not faced the same level of declines as technology or consumer discretionary sectors. This could indicate a defensive rotation, where investors seek refuge in sectors perceived as more stable during economic downturns.

In terms of sector rotation, there appears to be a movement towards defensive sectors like Utilities and Consumer Staples, as evidenced by the relative stability of companies like Edison International. This shift suggests that investors are preparing for potential economic slowdowns, prioritizing sectors that traditionally offer more consistent returns during turbulent times.

The current market cycle seems to be entering a contraction phase, characterized by increased volatility and a shift towards defensive investments. This is reflected in the underperformance of growth-oriented sectors like Information Technology and Consumer Discretionary, while more stable sectors maintain their ground.

Strategically, investors might consider overweighting sectors that have shown resilience, such as Industrials and Utilities, while being cautious with sectors facing headwinds like Technology and Consumer Discretionary. There may also be value opportunities in sectors that have recently underperformed but have potential for recovery, particularly if macroeconomic conditions stabilize.

Risk management strategies should focus on diversification across sectors to mitigate exposure to sector-specific risks. Additionally, considering dividend-paying stocks in stable sectors could provide a buffer against market volatility. Monitoring inflation, interest rate changes, and geopolitical developments will be crucial in assessing ongoing risks and adjusting investment strategies accordingly.

For a deeper understanding of these trends, additional resources such as detailed sector breakdowns and performance charts could provide valuable insights into market dynamics and support informed decision-making.

by: Anne Pro
AI Research Division

DESCRIPTION

This section offers valuable insights into market momentum by presenting two essential indicators. The first indicator measures the number of companies trading above their Simple Moving Averages (SMA) for 50, 100, and 200 periods. This indicator helps assess the overall strength and direction of the market by revealing how many companies are sustaining upward trends over different timeframes.

The second indicator focuses on the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a widely used momentum oscillator. It tracks the number of companies with RSI values below 30 and above 70, calculated over a 14-day period. An RSI below 30 typically signals that a stock is oversold, indicating a potential rebound, while an RSI above 70 suggests that a stock is overbought, possibly signaling a pullback.

By analyzing these indicators together, you can form a well-rounded opinion on the market’s current momentum. They provide insights into whether the prevailing trends are likely to continue or if the market is approaching a turning point, particularly when extreme values or high readings suggest a possible reversal. This information is crucial for making informed decisions about the potential direction of market movements.

The data for this analysis was extracted from the Yahoo Finance Website.

SP - Companies Above SMA 50

SP - Companies Above SMA 100

SP - Companies Above SMA 200

SP - Companies Below RSI 30

SP - Companies Above RSI 70

DJ - Companies Above SMA 50

DJ - Companies Above SMA 100

DJ - Companies Above SMA 200

DJ - Companies Below RSI 30

DJ - Companies Above RSI 70

ND - Companies Above SMA 50

ND - Companies Above SMA 100

ND - Companies Above SMA 200

ND - Companies Below RSI 30

ND - Companies Above RSI 70

SECTOR MOMENTUM DASHBOARD

This section provides a high-level overview of market momentum by analyzing the proportion of companies within each sector that are trading above their 50, 100, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA). To generate a comprehensive momentum score, we prioritize the 50-day SMA, which contributes 50% to the overall score, as it is considered the most significant indicator of short-term momentum. The 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA contribute 30% and 20% respectively, reflecting their roles in capturing medium and long-term trends.

The final momentum score, ranging from 0 to 100%, is interpreted as follows:

• The range from 70% to 100% is colored green, indicating “Positive to Strong Positive Momentum.”
• The range from 30% to 70% is colored orange, indicating “Neutral Momentum (sideways).”
• The range from 0% to 30% is colored red, indicating “Strong Negative Momentum.”

This score provides a clear snapshot of the market’s overall direction and strength.

Materials

Energy

Financials

Industrials

Technology

Consumer Staples

Real Estate

Utilities

Healthcare

Consumer Discretionary

BREADTH ANALYSIS

Here we are following the same idea that we show you in the Indices Momentum Section but here we are analyzing the Breadth in each of the Sectors of the US Economy. The indicator that we are using is the number of companies that are above their Simple Moving Average (50, 100 and 200 period). So, with this information you will be able to form an opinion related to the continuation of the current momentum (or if we are close to a rebound - something that highly happens at high readings or extreme values).

DESCRIPTION

A drawdown represents the decline from a peak to a trough during a specific period in the value of an investment, trading account, or fund. It serves as a critical measure of historical risk, offering insights into the volatility and potential losses associated with different investments. Drawdowns are typically expressed as a percentage, calculated by comparing the peak value to the subsequent lowest point before any recovery occurs. For example, if a trading account starts with 10,000 and drops to 9,000 before rebounding above 10,000, the account has experienced a 10% drawdown.

This section focuses on analyzing the drawdown patterns of the SP500, with a detailed examination of its duration and magnitude since 1930. By understanding these drawdown behaviors, investors can gain valuable insights into the resilience and risks associated with the Nasdaq over time.

The data for this analysis was extracted from the Yahoo Finance Website.

DESCRIPTION

A drawdown represents the decline from a peak to a trough during a specific period in the value of an investment, trading account, or fund. It serves as a critical measure of historical risk, offering insights into the volatility and potential losses associated with different investments. Drawdowns are typically expressed as a percentage, calculated by comparing the peak value to the subsequent lowest point before any recovery occurs. For example, if a trading account starts with 10,000 and drops to 9,000 before rebounding above 10,000, the account has experienced a 10% drawdown.

This section focuses on analyzing the drawdown patterns of the Nasdaq, with a detailed examination of its duration and magnitude since 1930. By understanding these drawdown behaviors, investors can gain valuable insights into the resilience and risks associated with the Nasdaq over time.

The data for this analysis was extracted from the Yahoo Finance Website.

DESCRIPTION

A drawdown represents the decline from a peak to a trough during a specific period in the value of an investment, trading account, or fund. It serves as a critical measure of historical risk, offering insights into the volatility and potential losses associated with different investments. Drawdowns are typically expressed as a percentage, calculated by comparing the peak value to the subsequent lowest point before any recovery occurs. For example, if a trading account starts with 10,000 and drops to 9,000 before rebounding above 10,000, the account has experienced a 10% drawdown.

This section focuses on analyzing the drawdown patterns of the SP500, with a detailed examination of its duration and magnitude since 1930. By understanding these drawdown behaviors, investors can gain valuable insights into the resilience and risks associated with the DowJones over time.

The data for this analysis was extracted from the Yahoo Finance Website.

DESCRIPTION

The Federal Reserve, as any other central bank, has some metrics that are more important than others; so, the idea here is to highlight those relevant metrics for the FED. These are: GDP, Unemployment, Inflation, Fed Fund Rate and Fed Liquidity.

Having an understanding of where this metrics are, gives an idea about the health of the US Economy.

DESCRIPTION

A healthy labor market will always be a receipt for economy growth. That is why supervising the following different metrics is mandatory for you to have a sound and complete view on how one of the most important underlying forces of the economy is performing.

OUR OPINION

As for the previous trading day, December 31, 2024, the U.S. Government Bond market exhibited notable trends across various maturities, reflecting broader economic conditions and investor sentiment. The 1-month yield stood at 4.4%, while the 3-month and 6-month yields were at 4.39% and 4.37%, respectively. The 1-year yield was 4.24%, and the 2-year yield was 4.16%. Longer maturities, such as the 10-year and 30-year bonds, yielded 4.86% and 4.78%, respectively.

Analyzing these yields, we observe that the shorter-term yields (1-month to 1-year) are relatively stable, with minor fluctuations over recent weeks. However, the 2-year yield has shown a slight decline, indicating potential shifts in short-term interest rate expectations. In contrast, the 10-year and 30-year yields have been more volatile, reflecting market uncertainty about long-term economic growth and inflation.

Currently, the 10-year bond yield is the highest among the maturities, suggesting a higher risk premium for long-term investments due to inflation concerns or anticipated economic growth. Conversely, the 2-year yield is the lowest, possibly indicating expectations of stable or declining short-term interest rates.

The yield curve, a crucial indicator of economic sentiment, presents an interesting picture. The 2-Year to 10-Year Yield Spread is calculated by subtracting the 2-year yield (4.16%) from the 10-year yield (4.86%), resulting in a positive spread of 0.70%. This positive slope suggests a normal yield curve, typically associated with expectations of economic expansion. However, the 3-Month to 10-Year Yield Spread, at 0.47% (4.86% - 4.39%), also remains positive, reinforcing the notion of anticipated economic growth.

Historically, these spreads have been narrowing, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment. A consistently positive yield curve slope suggests that investors expect future economic conditions to improve, with potential increases in inflation and interest rates.

From a bond price sensitivity perspective, shorter-duration bonds are less sensitive to interest rate changes, making them a safer choice in a volatile rate environment. Longer-duration bonds, such as the 10-year and 30-year, are more sensitive to rate changes, offering greater potential for capital appreciation in a declining rate environment but also higher risk in a rising rate scenario.

Given the current market conditions, investors might consider a strategy that balances duration and yield. In a rising rate environment, shorter-duration bonds could minimize price risk, while in a declining rate environment, longer-duration bonds might offer better returns. Investors should also monitor Federal Reserve policies closely, as shifts in interest rates can significantly impact bond yields and prices.

Looking ahead, the macroeconomic outlook suggests that if the yield curve remains positive, we might expect continued economic growth, albeit with caution due to potential inflationary pressures. Investors should consider diversifying their portfolios with high-quality bonds to manage risk effectively, especially if market volatility persists.

For a deeper understanding of these dynamics, additional resources such as historical yield charts and economic forecasts could provide valuable insights into future trends. By analyzing these indicators, investors can make more informed decisions, optimizing their strategies in the fixed-income market.

by: Anne Pro
AI Research Division

OUR OPINION

As for the previous trading day, the analysis of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) reveals several key trends and implications for the economy and financial markets.

1. Component Contribution Analysis

Recent data indicates that core CPI components such as housing, food and beverages, and services have been significant contributors to overall inflation. Housing costs, in particular, have shown persistent upward pressure, reflecting ongoing supply constraints and strong demand. The food and beverage sector also continues to experience price increases, likely due to supply chain disruptions and elevated input costs.

Conversely, apparel and commodities have shown minimal impact on overall CPI, with some deflationary trends observed in commodities, possibly due to improved supply conditions or reduced demand. Transport costs have fluctuated, reflecting volatility in energy prices, while medical care and education costs have remained relatively stable.

Overall, the component-level trends suggest that while some sectors are experiencing price stabilization, others continue to face inflationary pressures, influenced by supply chain challenges and shifts in consumer demand.

2. Month-over-Month (MoM) Change and Volatility

The Month-over-Month analysis reveals that CPI has experienced moderate volatility over the past year. Recent months have shown relatively stable MoM increases, with core CPI maintaining a steady upward trajectory. However, there have been occasional spikes, particularly in transport and housing, which have contributed to short-term inflationary pressures.

These MoM changes suggest that while inflation is not accelerating rapidly, persistent pressures remain, particularly in sectors sensitive to supply chain disruptions and energy price fluctuations. The stability in core CPI indicates underlying inflationary trends that may not be transitory.

3. Year-over-Year (YoY) Change and Volatility

Year-over-Year analysis shows that CPI has been consistently above the 2% target, with core CPI and all-items CPI both reflecting elevated levels. The trend over the past year indicates a gradual decline in YoY inflation rates, suggesting some easing of inflationary pressures. However, the CPI remains well above the target, indicating persistent inflation.

This persistent inflation above the 2% target suggests that central banks may continue to face pressure to maintain or even increase interest rates to curb inflation. The gradual decline in YoY rates may provide some relief, but the proximity to the target remains a concern for policymakers.

4. Strategic Implications and Macroeconomic Insights

Given the current CPI trends, the likelihood of further interest rate hikes remains high as central banks aim to bring inflation closer to the 2% target. However, the gradual decline in YoY inflation rates may lead to a more cautious approach, balancing the need to control inflation with the risk of slowing economic growth.

Recession risks remain a concern, particularly if aggressive rate hikes dampen consumer spending and investment. Inflation-sensitive sectors, such as consumer staples and utilities, may offer relative stability, while sectors like technology and discretionary spending could face headwinds.

Global economic scenarios, including geopolitical tensions and policy shifts, may further impact CPI trends and market performance. Investors should remain vigilant, considering sector-specific strategies and diversification to navigate potential volatility.

In conclusion, while inflationary pressures persist, there are signs of moderation. Policymakers and investors must remain attentive to evolving trends and potential macroeconomic shifts.

by: Anne Pro
AI Research Division

DESCRIPTION

The level of interest rate affect the consumption activity and therefore “push” the economy to an expansionary or recessionary state. A few concept that we important for you to know are:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is a broad measure of the cost of borrowing cash overnight collateralized by Treasury securities. The SOFR includes all trades in the Broad General Collateral Rate plus bilateral Treasury repurchase agreement (repo) transactions cleared through the Delivery-versus-Payment (DVP) service offered by the Fixed Income Clearing Corporation (FICC), which is filtered to remove a portion of transactions considered “specials”. Note that specials are repos for specific-issue collateral, which take place at cash-lending rates below those for general collateral repos because cash providers are willing to accept a lesser return on their cash in order to obtain a particular security.

The federal funds market consists of domestic unsecured borrowings in U.S. dollars by depository institutions from other depository institutions and certain other entities, primarily government-sponsored enterprises. The effective federal funds rate (EFFR) is calculated as a volume-weighted median of overnight federal funds transactions reported in the FR 2420 Report of Selected Money Market Rates.

The other graphs show the evolution and the cost of several different type of loans (personal, revolving and credit card) - and remember: credit is a key driver of consupmtion in The US.

Here you will see the most relevant data related to different interest rate metrics such as: SOFR, Federal Fund Rate, Mortgage and Personal Loan.

The data for this analysis was extracted from the FRED Website.

% Home Ownership - Last 10 Yrs

Median Income - Last 10 Yrs

Debt vs Income - Last 10 Yrs

Mortgage vs Income - Last 10 Yrs

OUR OPINION

As for the previous trading day, the Federal Reserve’s liquidity dynamics reveal intriguing trends and potential implications for financial markets. The analysis of recent data highlights key components of the Fed’s balance sheet, with a particular focus on the repo market, which plays a crucial role in shaping liquidity conditions.

Liquidity Trends and Analysis

The Federal Reserve’s liquidity position is influenced by various factors, including total assets, liabilities, net liquidity, and credit facilities. Recent data indicates a stable liquidity environment, with the Fed maintaining a balance between assets and liabilities. However, the overnight repo market has shown significant activity, with volumes reaching $399.167 billion as of March 31, 2025. This represents a substantial increase from earlier in the month, suggesting heightened demand for short-term funding.

The repo market serves as a critical tool for financial institutions to manage liquidity, and its fluctuations can signal shifts in market sentiment. The increase in repo volumes indicates a possible tightening of funding conditions, as institutions seek liquidity to meet short-term obligations. This trend could influence the Fed’s overall liquidity stance, potentially leading to adjustments in monetary policy to ensure market stability.

Impact on Market Dynamics and Strategic Insights

The current liquidity environment, characterized by robust repo activity, suggests potential market outcomes. Increased repo volumes may indicate risk-off conditions, as financial institutions prioritize liquidity over riskier investments. This could lead to cautious market behavior, with investors seeking safe-haven assets.

Short-term funding conditions, as reflected in the repo market, are crucial for financial stability. Any significant shifts in repo activity could impact market movements, with potential implications for asset prices and volatility. The interplay between repo dynamics and broader macroeconomic factors, such as inflation and interest rates, will be critical in shaping market expectations.

REPO Market Analytics

Recent trends in the repo market highlight its importance in the Fed’s liquidity framework. The increase in overnight repo volumes suggests a growing demand for liquidity, possibly driven by market uncertainties or regulatory requirements. This demand underscores the Fed’s role in providing short-term funding to stabilize financial markets.

Repo market activities directly affect the Fed’s net liquidity stance. Increased repo volumes can indicate tighter funding conditions, requiring the Fed to adjust its liquidity provisions to maintain market equilibrium. Historically, heightened repo activity has correlated with cautious market sentiment, potentially leading to bearish trends in equity markets like the S&P 500.

Assessing the risk level associated with current repo activities is crucial for financial stability. A sudden contraction in repo volumes could lead to liquidity stress, impacting financial institutions’ ability to meet obligations. Monitoring these dynamics is essential to anticipate potential market stress points and mitigate risks.

Observations and Recommendations

Key insights from the data reveal an increase in liquidity provisions through the repo market, which may signal cautious market behavior. This trend could impact both equity and bond markets, with potential implications for asset prices and volatility.

Actionable recommendations include positioning for potential risk-off conditions, as increased liquidity demand may indicate market caution. Investors should consider diversifying portfolios to include safe-haven assets, while remaining vigilant for shifts in liquidity trends that could signal changes in market dynamics.

Potential scenarios include continued increases in repo volumes, which may necessitate further Fed interventions to ensure liquidity stability. Conversely, a decrease in repo activity could signal improved funding conditions, potentially leading to risk-on market behavior.

In conclusion, the analysis of the Fed’s liquidity dynamics, particularly the repo market, provides valuable insights into current and future market conditions. Additional data and historical trends are available to support this analysis, offering a comprehensive view of the evolving liquidity landscape.

by: Anne Pro
AI Research Division

Change in REPO (Daily)

Total Net Liquidity

Total Credit Aid

Total Assets

Total Liab and Capital

OUR OPINION

As for the previous trading day, the SP500’s Gamma Exposure (GEX) analysis reveals significant insights into market dynamics and potential strategies. The key levels of interest, including the put wall, call wall, and gamma flip, provide a comprehensive view of the current market environment.

The put wall, identified at a strike price of 5482, represents the level where the highest concentration of negative gamma is observed. This level acts as a critical downside support, suggesting that if the SP500 approaches this level, there could be increased selling pressure from market makers, potentially leading to heightened volatility. The call wall, located at 6276, indicates the strike price with the highest positive gamma concentration, serving as a resistance level that could cap potential upside movements.

The gamma flip level, at 5577, is crucial as it marks the transition point where total gamma exposure shifts from negative to positive. The SP500’s closing price, which is not explicitly provided in the data, needs to be compared against this gamma flip level to assess the current gamma territory. If the SP500 is trading below 5577, it indicates negative gamma territory, where market makers might amplify price movements, increasing volatility. Conversely, trading above this level suggests positive gamma territory, where market makers’ hedging activities could dampen volatility, leading to more stable price movements.

Analyzing the gamma exposure trend across different strikes, we observe significant clustering of gamma at certain levels. For instance, the highest GEX values are concentrated around the call wall, indicating strong resistance. The total gamma exposure at the gamma flip level is crucial for understanding potential market reactions. If the SP500 is near the gamma flip, traders should be prepared for potential shifts in market sentiment and positioning.

In terms of strategy, if the SP500 is trading near the put wall, protective hedging strategies or downside protection measures are advisable to mitigate potential losses. Conversely, if the SP500 is near the call wall, selling calls or strategies that capitalize on limited upside potential could be beneficial. When the SP500 is at or near the gamma flip, strategies should focus on exploiting potential increased volatility in negative gamma territory or aiming for range-bound trading in positive gamma conditions.

For a more comprehensive understanding of these dynamics, readers are encouraged to refer to additional resources such as charts and historical data available on the accompanying web platform. These visual aids can provide further context and enhance strategic planning.

Through this analysis, we aim to enhance our understanding of market dynamics and improve our strategic planning, ultimately leading to more informed and effective decision-making.

by: Anne Pro
AI Research Division

SECTION DESCRIPTION:

The following information is related to the SPX

SECTION DESCRIPTION:

The following information is related to the SPY

SECTION DESCRIPTION:

The following information is related to the XSP.

OUR OPINION

As for the previous trading day, the options market analysis reveals a nuanced picture of market positioning and potential movements across major indices and sectors. The data indicates critical gamma flip points, which are pivotal in understanding the market’s current state and potential future directions.

Starting with the major indices, the S&P 500 (SPX) is trading in a range where the gamma flip point is at 5577.0. The current market positioning suggests a positive gamma regime, as the price is above this level, indicating potential for accelerated upside moves. The put wall at 5482.0 serves as a significant support level, while the call wall at 6276.0 represents a major resistance zone. This wide range suggests a broad trading band, providing opportunities for both bullish and bearish strategies depending on market momentum.

In the technology sector, notable stocks like Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) are trading near their gamma flip points. AAPL’s gamma flip is at 218.0, with the current price slightly above, indicating a positive gamma environment. The put wall at 194.0 offers a strong support level, while the call wall at 256.0 is a potential resistance point. MSFT, with a gamma flip at 377.0, is also in a positive gamma regime, with support at 358.0 and resistance at 435.0. These levels suggest that traders should be cautious of potential reversals near these critical points.

In the financial sector, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Bank of America (BAC) are key stocks to watch. JPM’s gamma flip is at 242.0, with the current price slightly below, indicating a negative gamma regime and potential for downside moves. The put wall at 212.0 provides support, while the call wall at 275.0 is a resistance level. BAC’s gamma flip at 41.0 suggests a similar negative gamma environment, with support at 37.0 and resistance at 49.0.

Healthcare stocks like Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and UnitedHealth Group (UNH) show varied positioning. JNJ’s gamma flip is at 164.0, with the current price below, indicating a negative gamma regime. Support is at 132.0, and resistance is at 168.0. UNH, with a gamma flip at 518.0, is also in a negative gamma regime, with support at 422.0 and resistance at 559.0.

The analysis of these sectors highlights the importance of gamma exposure in determining potential market moves. Traders should focus on stocks trading near their gamma flip points, as these levels often precede significant price movements. Risk management is crucial, especially near support and resistance zones, to mitigate potential losses from unexpected market shifts.

In conclusion, the current market positioning suggests a mix of positive and negative gamma regimes across different sectors. Traders should remain vigilant for breakout or breakdown scenarios, particularly in stocks and indices near critical gamma levels. Additional reference data can be found in the table accompanying the LLM-generated analysis.

by: Anne Pro
AI Research Division

DESCRIPTION

This page shows you the % of Open Interest that, at expiration, ended with one of the following two conditions:

• Spot Price greater than the Strike Price.
• Strike Price greater than the Spot Price.

The first two charts are really important. They show, on average, what had happened at expiration on all the tickers that we are analyzing. The last section of this webpage, shows you the details of each ticker (every day, EDO, at expiration).

How can you use this information? Well, in the following way… According to our analysis more than 75%, or in some cases more than 90%, of the Open Interest ended with a Spot Price greater than the Strike Price for the PUTs and with a Strike Price greater than the Spot Price for the Calls (regardless of the underlying asset). So, this means that if you buy an option (a Call or a Put) and you wait until expiration there is a high probability that your trade will end OTM (meaning: you will lose money). This is the Max Pain Theory (more and more assets will be added into this page in the future).

The way of using this webpage is as follow:

• Select the ticker.
• Scroll down to see the Put and Call analysis.

The data for this analysis was extracted from the CBOE website.

DESCRIPTION

The main idea of this algorithm is to generate a possible future scenario for several asset classes.

The algorithm runs a correlation analysis and train a multiple linear regression model with that information; finally, it generates the future performance (during the current year) according to the training and learning of that model. The training process follows the following logic:

• First time we train the model: at the end of the first quarter.
• Reinforcement learning process: every quarter we retrain the model.
• After each training we generate the future performance for the remaining time of the year.

Here you will see two graphs per each asset. The chart in the left shows you the opinion of the model after each training period. This means: after training the model, it generates the Year-End valuation of the asset and display that information in percentage terms. Then, the chart on your right shows you the last training and validation of the last model trained; so, in that graph you will see the most updated opinion.

We know many colleagues who perform this type of analysis and we have had the opportunity to visit some investment banks (specifically on the Sell Side) and they have neither tarot cards nor Ouija boards to make these predictions. Hence, here we want to show you one technique that it is used to make such daring predictions.

Everything is summed up in the following sentence: “History does not repeat itself, but it does rhyme”.

The data for this analysis was extracted from the Yahoo Finance Website

Hi there! I’m Anne Pro, from the AI Research Division, and I’m excited to introduce a smarter, simpler way to navigate the stock market.

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• Stock Analysis: at 2 AM (NY Time) I run the strategy engine, download the data from Yahoo Finance and generate the insigets
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• Position Alerts: You’ll know exactly when we open new positions and when we close positions—all shared in real time.
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The data for this analysis was extracted from the Yahoo Finance Website

Hi there! I’m Anne Pro, from the AI Research Division, and I’m thrilled to introduce a dynamic, momentum-driven approach to help you stay ahead in today’s fast-paced stock market.

After countless hours of analyzing market data and refining our algorithms, my team and I have developed a strategy that identifies assets with the strongest underlying momentum in specific indices. This isn’t guesswork—these are data-backed insights designed to maximize your portfolio’s potential.

🚀 Here’s how it works:

• Momentum Scanning: Every day at 2 AM (NY Time), our strategy engine processes data for every asset in the selected index, pulling real-time insights directly from Yahoo Finance. We focus on identifying the strongest trends to pinpoint opportunities.
• Daily Portfolio Updates: At 8:00 AM (NY Time), I share the updated portfolio in our exclusive Discord channel and WhatsApp group. You’ll know exactly which assets are worth watching.
• Actionable Alerts: Receive real-time notifications whenever we open or close a position, ensuring you never miss a critical moment.
• Weekly Performance Insights: Each week, I share a comprehensive performance summary of the portfolio, straight from Interactive Brokers, to keep you informed of our results and the strategy’s progress.

💡 Why join our community?

• It’s FREE to get started!
• Gain access to a proven strategy that simplifies investing by leveraging momentum.
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The data for this analysis was extracted from the Yahoo Finance Website

Underlying Negative or Neutral Momentum for the SP500

Underlying Negative or Neutral Momentum for the NASDAQ

Underlying Negative or Neutral Momentum for the DOW

In the following section I will show information related to the Sectors:

• XLB: Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund – Materials Sector
• XLE: Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund – Energy Sector
• XLF: Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund – Financials Sector
• XLI: Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund – Industrials Sector
• XLK: Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund – Technology Sector
• XLP: Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund – Consumer Staples Sector
• XLRE: Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund – Real Estate Sector
• XLU: Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund – Utilities Sector
• XLV: Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund – Health Care Sector
• XLY: Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund – Consumer Discretionary Sector